Americans are spending less in McDonalds. Ship can be expected in low containers at the port of Los Angeles. Proctor and gumbl are raising prices. Matel is transferring production from China.
Except for President Trump’s trade war, there is evidence of the economic impact of the war – excluding most of the economic information. Customer did not cost. Did not trim. Businesses have not stopped buying investment or supply to equipment.
Economists say that it is a matter of time before the impact of the tariff and the on-bar of Mr. Trump on the on -bar, trade policy, it is a matter of time, it has begun to appear on strict information. তবে ততক্ষণে তারা প্রমাণের টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো টুকরো
This is in some ways to have a more buttoned version of the recent social media trend where users have shared the disappointing economic evil – some serious, some ridiculous – the hashtag #under the residence indicator.
“The problem is that we don’t have much to hang at the moment,” said Mark Giannie, the chief US economist, Berkless. “We have to rely on our episodes, on indicators that are obsolete.”
Federal Reserve officials are among the victims for the tide of evidence, who can set financial policies in an environment where the customs policy can be transferred multiple times within the meeting. Due to this uncertainty, the policy makers kept interest rate on Wednesday. However, they will keep an eye on the symptoms that the economy is changing faster than the common indicators can capture.
The situation is reminiscent of the first days of the Coronavirus epidemic, while economists – to preserve restaurants, presence at the broadway show, screening at the transportation security agency checkpoints – which can indicate the loss of arrival. Joe Bruceuellas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM, says he has been getting flashbacks since then.
“I didn’t want to go back to the traffic and TSA and all this metric,” he said.
During the epidemic, economists would often look for evidence and probably agreed on what would be the effects. This time there are more disagreements. Will the tariffs be published in most high prices or product deficiencies? Do customers run behind the expense by leading the trim? Or workers spend on following their income as they reduce – probably in production and shipping – the trims will come first?
“এমন সময়ে যখন অর্থনীতিতে প্রচুর অস্থিরতা থাকে এবং আপনি আসলে যা চলছে তা বোঝার জন্য ডেটা অপেক্ষা করার জন্য অপেক্ষা করছেন – কারণ কেবল ভোক্তাদের আচরণের পরিবর্তন হতে সময় লাগে না, তবে এটি ঘটেছে তার এক মাস বা তারও বেশি সময় পরেও আমরা এই উপাখ্যানগুলি দেখতে চান যেখানে আপনি এই উপাখ্যানগুলি দেখতে চান,” সিআইটিইউইউইউইটিইউইটিইউইটিইউইটিইউইটি,
The tariffs have already been displayed somehow in economic data: consumers and traders have begun to import products before the new duties come into effect. It has increased the trade deficit, which is $ 140 billion in March.
However, economists do not agree on what will happen next. Some argue that the tariffs increase the price, customers will reduce their purchase, eventually trim and recession. Others argue that customers, especially for the rich people, are in considerable financial shapes that they will be able to maintain the expenses, allowing businesses to pass their higher expenses and increase inflation. And of course it is possible that Mr. Trump will return the tariff, or they will prove less harmful than many economists’ expectations.
Top officials of the Trump administration, including the Treasury Secretary Scott Basent, will meet at the first formal meeting with their Chinese part in Switzerland this week as Mr Trump has imposed a minimum of 5 percent tariff on imported from China.
Since Mr. Trump took over, consumer sentiments have decreased, suggesting that buyers are in a slight mood of the stomach. However, economists have become more skeptical about these national steps in recent years since the epidemic failed to predict consumer behavior.
“What we have learned in the epidemic is what we have learned in the epidemic,” said Yale’s budget lab, “siblings can look bad and still will spend the customers still spend.”
Therefore, the focus on the episodes, which predictors hope to provide the initial hint of which side of the economy is moving forward.
Martha Gimble, a colleague of Mr Tedesi, said, “This is as we are asking all of us to act like a distinct hedge fund and we are trying to look for data that will give us an advantage.”
The problem is that the episodes are also sending mixed messages. Airline executives are issuing serious warnings. South West Airlines chief executive recently said that the downturn in his industry has already begun, yet the hotel occupation rate is still retained. McDonalds and Chipotal have said that the last quarter has declined, but the sales of Pizza Hut, KFC and Taco Bell – Yum brands have increased despite being called “complex consumer environment”. Companies have told different stories about when and how much the cost of the tariff will pass to consumers.
The episodes and alternative data sources can also be easy to explain. When tourists were submerged from international tourists in March a year ago, many observers accepted it as a sign that foreigners were avoiding the United States of America because of Mr. Trump’s policy. But that drop was now mostly the result of the late Easter: tourism returns in April.
Opposition signals create a problem for the Fed because it weights when the interest rate is reduced. The central bank is concerned with concern that the economy is dramatically slow in the weight of Mr Trump’s tariff. However, the risks they can reveal a wave of higher consumers at the time when inflation is stubbornly adhesive, the bar has raised the bar to take steps.
As a result, the Fed will probably require more than only the tales. Officers should see at least clear signs that the trims are on the horizon. Spiking gives them even more assurances that they can reduce interest rates without thinking about inflation kingdom. However, it increases the risk that they will be late and will be forced to do more on the banks of the economy.
“The episodes are truly important in the context, but in the end it will be strict data that effectively implement,” Mr. Hollenhorst said.
Daniel Qae And Medalin NGO Reporting contributions.
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