In the first quarter of 2021, the US economic growth slowly slowed down as the businessmen rushed to the reserve products before President Trump’s hanging tariff policy.
The country’s total domestic product – the total price of products and services – has been reduced by 2.5% in the final three months of 2021 at an annual rate of 0.3%, the Commerce Department on Wednesday said its initial GDP assumption. This is the worst quarterly performance for the US economy from early 2022, while the economy was recovered after the Craratoring during the Covid epidemic.
According to the average economist, the US economy was forecast to show 0.8% growth in the first three months of 2021.
This downturn has come to anxious anxiety that Mr. Trump’s extensive tariffs may disrupt the US economy, some economists have increased the possibility of the United States Recession In 2025 though the Trump administration had blanket tariffs Announced April 2 -After the end of the coroner-traders tried to move towards the impact of import tariffs by purchasing front-loading early in the year.
Economists have warned that the state of economic growth cannot be fully reflected in the report, noting that traders are trying to move forward more than tariff, these figures may be noisy because of the rise in imports. Economists have noted that the growth growth of imports can reduce economic growth and it seems to be turned away from domestic costs, but it does not tell the whole story, economists notes.
Nevertheless, concerns over tariffs forced business and customers to change their behavior at the beginning of the year, indicating that the steep import fee rollout could create headwind for the economy later in 2025, experts said.
“This artificial front-loading Q2 of demand determines the cliff’s stage at Q2-a more worrying episode of the economic economic downturn.” Eye Chief Economist Gregory Daco says in an email.
According to the capital economy, the GDP can get second-quarter incentive because of the tariff rollout and front-loading of the year.
“Overall, [the GDP data is] Not as bad as fear, although some drops of imports in the second quarter will return. We predict 2.5% annual rebound in the second-quarter GDP. “
The effect of the dog cuts
The Commerce Department said the first quarterly growth imports were influenced by the increase of imports of 5.5% in addition to increasing imports.
Mr. Trump’s Government Efficiency Department, Billionaire Elon Oran Kasturi, Customer Financial Protection Bureau, Large Agencies like Cut Effectively Stopped Several thousand federal workersAnd cancel funds for health and science studies.
Economists are hoping that the US economy will slow down in 2021, partially due to the impact of Mr Trump’s tariff, which is the import tariff provided by American companies like Walmart or Target. When facing higher tariffs, companies usually spend all or something to buyers, which can disappoint consumers’ expenses.
According to the factory, the GDP growth is predicted to slowly at 2025. Down from it 2.8% in 2024The
“[T]His inflation will show information when the price rise in the price of the customer, which pushes the real income that we expect heavy weight to increase the cost, “Pierce said.
ADP employment number is a missed
With the release of ADP’s employment number on Wednesday, another red flag of the US economy has shown that private employers have added 622,3 jobs this month, which is much less than the 5,7 jobs predicted by the factory.
On Friday, a monthly job report showed that employers created 5 new work, showing the downturn, factories in March 225,7.
The combination of poor ADP data, GDP reports and other economic information is “increasingly a downturn,” suggests “the trading company’s market strategy of the trading market’s global head David Russell says, in an email.
Economic information in the shadow may persuade the Federal Reserve to reduce the rate further, experts said. The central bank will decide on its next rate at its May East meeting, most economists predicted that Fed would keep the rate of its criterion.
“The information is clearly delayed to delay the facts; they will probably continue their waiting method to evaluate inflation shocks arising from the tariffs announced in April,” said Olu Sonola, head of US economic research, in an email.
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